1st Week CCM 2026. Carbon market advances: forecasts for 2026, CBAM in effect, NDCs completed, COP31 leadership defined and new post-COP30 opportunities boost global climate jobs and actions
- Art Dam
- 11 hours ago
- 7 min read
Monday, 05 January 2026.
In the opening of the 1st week Carbon Credit Markets 2026, we delve into important themes that reflect the major inflections of 2025 and are already shaping the coming year. Meanwhile, our team is putting the finishing touches on the Carbon Credit Markets 2025 Yearbook, which will be released soon and promises to establish itself as the most comprehensive reference in Portuguese, bringing together analyses, news, and technical content on carbon markets, climate adaptation, energy transition, and related areas.
Register now — details coming soon.
Carbon Credits
Sylvera Makes Predictions About 2026
Sylvera — one of the leading global carbon credit valuation platforms — brought together four of its leaders to anticipate trends expected to shape 2026. According to the company, carbon markets are moving towards consolidation into three distinct segments – compliance-eligible credits, high-priced removals, and the mass market – while CORSIA faces the risk of severe supply shortages, with futures underestimating this pressure. Experts also point out that carbon removal technologies should finally become financially viable at scale, and that institutional buyers are likely to enter the removal market more robustly, altering demand dynamics. Read more here.
Progress on Article 6 Methodologies and Preparation of the Technical Agenda for 2026
The Methodological Expert Panel has made progress in developing essential tools—including lock-in risk analysis and rollback assessment for removals—and continues to harmonize CDM methodologies with Article 6.4, covering renewable energy and clean cooking. The group also evaluated proposed methodologies for low-carbon ammonia (PMM001), N₂O abatement (PMM002), and the CLEAR approach (Comprehensive Lowered Emission Assessment and Reporting Methodology for Cooking Energy Transitions, the proposed methodology PMM004), which will continue to be refined. These advances structure the technical agenda for 2026, culminating in the next MEP meeting, scheduled to take place from January 26 to 30, 2026. More details here.
Japan and Maldives Conduct First International Carbon Credit Transfer JCM
The Maldives and Japan have completed the first international transfer of mitigation outcomes under the JCM mechanism, following the issuance decision taken at the fifth meeting of the Joint Committee on December 16, 2025, as recorded in official statements. The JCM (Joint Crediting Mechanism) is a bilateral cooperation mechanism created by the Government of Japan, under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, to develop emission reduction projects in partner countries—such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Chile, among others—and share the credits generated between the countries. The new operation involved a Smart Mini Grid project in Addu City, resulting in the authorization of 433 tCO₂eq in credits for the Japanese side and 317 tCO₂eq for the Maldives, with vintages between 2021 and 2022. Here is the report of the meeting that addressed this new operation.
Chile Launches Carbon Price and Market Roadmap During COP30
During COP30, Chile presented its new Roadmap for Carbon Pricing Instruments and Markets (Hoja de Ruta de instrumentos de precio y mercados de carbono), an official document from the Ministry of the Environment prepared with technical support from the PMI, as detailed in the institutional announcement of the partnership. The roadmap consolidates the national strategy to strengthen the carbon market, integrate mitigation instruments, expand compensation mechanisms, and align domestic policies with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The country estimates that this integrated approach will mobilize more than USD 250 million annually in investments and generate at least 5 million tCO₂e of emission reductions per year, in addition to recognizing the progress of the ETS pilot project foreseen in the sectoral mitigation plan and supported by the PMI, strengthening climate governance towards neutrality by 2050. It is worth remembering that Chile took a swift and decisive step by publishing the regulation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on December 13, 2025. The 81-page Hoja de Ruta document is available for download below.
Gold Standard Aligns Methodologies with the Paris Agreement and Raises Carbon Market Demands
Gold Standard announced it will update its requirements and methodologies to align them with the Paris Agreement, ensuring that future credits reflect net-zero trajectories, greater climate ambition, more robust quantification, and support for project transitions, in line with NDC targets and the expectations of SBTi, ICVCM, and CORSIA. This initiative reinforces the integrity of carbon markets, avoids lock-in technologies incompatible with decarbonization, and ensures that credits from 2026 onwards contribute in a real way to limiting warming to 1.5°C, protecting people, nature, and the market value of projects. More details on the changes can be found here.
Verra Approves Third-Party Insurance to Strengthen Credit Integrity CORSIA
Verra has announced a significant milestone for the carbon market by approving the first third-party developed insurance products for CORSIA-eligible credits, as detailed in the official announcement. These insurance policies—offered by specialist companies, not Verra—meet the program's criteria to mitigate risks of reversal, invalidation, and non-compliance, strengthening buyer confidence and ensuring greater integrity of VCUs issued from 2021 onwards. The approval also requires Article 6 labels and appropriate corresponding adjustment mechanisms, aligning the voluntary market with international aviation requirements. More details are available in the official announcement.
Other Highlights
CBAM Comes into Force and Imposes Carbon Costs on EU Imports
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its final phase on January 1, 2026, requiring importers from the European Union to purchase certificates proportional to the embedded emissions of carbon-intensive goods such as steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, hydrogen, and electricity, as detailed by the European Commission. This measure complements the EU ETS, gradually replacing free allocations and ensuring a level playing field between European and foreign producers, while encouraging global decarbonization. More information is available here on the official portal.
135 NDCs Submitted Conclude Global Climate Ambition Cycle in 2025
Since the submission by the United Arab Emirates on November 6, 2024, a total of 135 countries have registered new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the UNFCCC's NDC Registry, representing one of the most critical periods for NDC submissions. Of this total, 75 countries submitted their NDCs up to one month before COP30, another 53 countries submitted them in the month of and during the conference, and 7 countries submitted them in the month following COP30, with the most recent update – Republic of Korea – registered on December 26, 2025. More than 60 countries that ratified the Paris Agreement had not updated their NDCs by the beginning of January 2026, including Saudi Arabia (last NDC is from Oct/2021), Argentina (Nov/2021), Congo (Aug/2021) and Democratic Republic of Congo (Dec/2021), Guyana (May/2016), India (Aug/2022) and Papua New Guinea (Dec/2020).
Türkiye officially appoints Murat Kurum as leader of COP31
The Turkish government published in Resmi Gazete the appointment of Murat Kurum, officially confirming that the minister will lead the COP31 climate conference in Turkey in 2026 and coordinate all national preparations, as well as represent the country in the parallel meetings of CMP21 and CMA8. CMP21 is the 21st meeting of countries that are part of the Kyoto Protocol, responsible for overseeing its implementation, while CMA8 is the 8th meeting of signatory countries of the Paris Agreement, which defines rules and monitors global progress on climate goals; both take place in parallel with COP31 because each climate treaty has its own decision-making body within the UN structure. Murat Kurum is a politician and engineer, currently Turkey's Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. Located approximately 650km from Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, and about 500km from the capital Ankara, COP31 will be held in Antalya from November 9th to 20th, 2026.
New York creates mandatory rule to track large carbon emitters
New York City finalized, on December 1, 2025, a regulation establishing a Mandatory Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reporting Program, requiring major emitters—such as power plants, landfills, fuel suppliers, and waste transporters—to report their emissions annually starting in 2027. This measure will allow the state to accurately identify the largest polluters, protect vulnerable communities, strengthen pollution reduction policies, and advance toward the goal of a clean economy by 2050. Here is the statement from the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), the official environmental agency of the New York State government.
Opportunities
Influential Consulting Firms Analyze the Post-COP30 Period: What to Do Now, How to Move Forward, and Where the Opportunities Lie.
(1) Bain & Company highlights that, given the advancement of climate policies and the growing pressure for resilience, companies need to act immediately to convert environmental commitments into practical and competitive strategies — a movement that its experts describe with clarity and a sense of urgency.
(2) McKinsey points out that, despite limited formal progress at COP30, the business drive to act on climate remains strong, opening up space for new opportunities in adaptation, clean technologies and regional decarbonization strategies, detailed in its report.
WRI: Climate Transition Could Generate Millions of Jobs — If Countries Invest in People
A WRI report shows that the new low-carbon economy could create up to 375 million jobs in the next decade, provided governments and businesses place skills development, social inclusion, and investment in human capital at the heart of just transition strategies. A few weeks ago, LinkedIn published its Green Skills Report 2025, revealing that the demand for green skills is growing almost twice as fast as talent development and already gives qualified professionals a clear hiring advantage in economies such as Brazil, the US, India, the UK, and Canada.
Events
📢 January 20, 2026, Gold Standard: What to expect from SBTi's Corporate Net-Zero Standard Version 2.0?
📅 June 3rd and 4th, 2026, Argentina Carbon Forum 2026
Carbon Credit Markets is an educational channel and leading media outlet in the carbon markets, member of the coalition COP Experience, with a strong digital presence and a global audience in over 100 countries. It is the number 1 website in Brazil and the 17th most influential in the world, according to FeedSpot.
