Forest offsets in the path of wildfires

A few days ago we published about the Buildup for COP27, the MSCI Net-Zero Tracker report.

"Forest offsets in the path of wildfires". This was a scary chapter, as presented on pages 14 and 15 of the report, compiling data from BeZero Carbon, from NASA and MSCI itself.

Climate change-induced heat and drought threatens to destroy nature reserves, affecting forest-based offsets already undertaken or potential projects. As shown in the image below, the number of nature-based offsets is significant in areas with medium and high risk of forest fires.

"What will happen to the carbon credits generated from forests that catches fire afterwards?" This has been a question we always ask at events we participate in. The unusual is a good answer. How to compensate for it? Would it be a double count?

Last October 24, at the webinar "Brazil and Global Climate Governance: A Proposal for Building Climate Capacity in Brazil", a joint organization between Columbia Climate School, Future Carbon Group and Columbia Global Centers, we received an interesting response from Paul DeNoon, Senior Advisor from Columbia Climate School: "Buffer pools. Projetcs set aside some credits to "buffer" against reversals"

There are recent references that wildfires have depleted 95% of set-aside forest offsets in California’s emissions cap-and-trade program, for example. (Badgley, Grayson et al. “California’s Forest Carbon Offset Buffer Pool is Severely Undercapitalized.” Aug. 5, 2022). Wildfires and forestry are the main cause of tree loss in in northern and temperate forests.

We have to work to make these "buffer pools" more and more a reality among us. And enough for the future that awaits us.