Extra edition. About the first day of the Argus Latin America Carbon Conference 2025.
- Art Dam
- Jun 24
- 6 min read
Tuesday, June 24, 2025.
The event was opened by Camila Dias (Brazil Bureau Chief and Country Manager, Argus), who highlighted that it was the first event of its kind by the company in Brazil, and also marked the launch of a new report focused on the carbon market. Details at the end of this article.
Next, Erisa Senerdem (Global Carbon Lead Argus) presented Argus’ global outlook for carbon markets. Here are the highlights.
1. Supply exceeds demand – and suffocates the market. The voluntary market (VCM) has faced a chronic excess of credits since 2008. Even with a recent increase in demand (2023–2025), supply (emissions) – driven by renewables – continues to exceed demand (retirements), which are concentrated in AFOLU projects and at the end of the year. This puts pressure on prices and could undermine climate impact.
2. Stable but sensitive prices. Prices vary by project type, with bonuses for removals and social co-benefits. The elasticity between price and demand exists, but it is not linear. In a market that is still deregulated and driven by perception, liquidity remains limited.
3. Integrity defines trust. Without robust regulation and stability mechanisms, the market is volatile. Cases such as Rimba Raya vs. Katingan show that risk ratings (BeZero) do not always reflect the real situation. Integrity, standardization and transparency are vital for credibility.
4. Credits that comply with ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles (CCP): lots of potential, little traction. Even with methodologies approved since 2024, CCP credits have not yet gained scale. They are concentrated in a few sectors and have modest price premiums. The regulatory focus is positive, but the market is resisting.
5. CORSIA: giant on pause. With 129 participating countries, CORSIA promises a lot — limiting emissions from international aviation to 85% of 2019 levels — but has delivered little so far. Few projects, complex rules and political uncertainties (such as a possible US exit) limit its current impact.
The second panel, moderated by Felipe Kury (FK Energy), explored market dynamics and highlighted Latin American experiences, such as the Vida Manglar project in Colombia and the initiatives of the cement sector in Chile, as well as the urgent need to implement a regulated carbon market (ETS) in Brazil.
Elen Perez (Conservation International) presented the Vida Manglar project, one of the first blue carbon projects in the world and the first REDD+ project focused exclusively on mangroves in Colombia. Developed in the Gulf of Morrosquillo, the project combines environmental conservation with community development, protecting more than 8,500 hectares and directly benefiting 571 local families. It aims to prevent deforestation, promote climate education and generate income through sustainable tourism, with special attention to gender equality.
The project has already emitted around 170,000 tCO₂e verified and certified under the VCS and CCB standards. Elen also highlighted the governance challenges, the financial bottlenecks faced by initiatives like this and the growing role of blended finance, in addition to the need to strengthen the integrity and credibility of carbon certification.
Aldo Cerda (CEO of SCX) presented a global overview of carbon pricing in the cement sector, highlighting the huge disparity in prices by country and the emerging role of offset mechanisms. He showed that, although Brazil is still operating in the pilot phase (with a zero price), countries such as the EU and the United Kingdom already apply values above US$90/tCO₂e. Aldo highlighted that the use of offsets has been particularly significant in Colombia, with 43% tax exemption via offsets, compared to only 14% in Chile.
He also compared the performance of market instruments, noting that EACs (such as I-RECs) have already delivered more emissions reductions in Chile than carbon credits themselves. Projections through 2030 show that renewable energy and environmental certificates will play a dominant role in GHG reductions. Finally, Aldo noted that the financial sector has been slow to move forward, suggesting that greater agility is needed for market instruments to gain real scale.
Laura Albuquerque (Chief Climate Officer, Future Climate) highlighted that carbon credits are increasingly being used as instruments to support climate investments. She mentioned the progress of the first BECCS project in Brazil, signaling a new era for removal technologies. She also commented on the ups and downs of the market and warned that the role of subnational governments still needs to be better defined. Laura emphasized that Brazil now has greater accounting and legal clarity on what a carbon credit is, recalling that previously “many people signed contracts worth millions of dollars without knowing exactly what they were legally involved”. Finally, she highlighted the existence of serious governance challenges and the need for robust due diligence processes in the sector.
Before closing the second panel, the tensions between the global North and South, the strategic role of COP30 and the importance of converting climate commitments into effective financial actions were discussed.
Next, Julia Sekula (Terradot) presented ERW (“Enhanced Rock Weathering”) technology as a promising route for carbon removals with simultaneous benefits to agriculture and mining.
Julia presented a scientific and technical introduction to silicate weathering as a natural and emerging climate solution. She explained the natural geochemical cycle in which rain interacts with silicate-rich rocks, releasing ions such as calcium and magnesium that react with CO₂, forming bicarbonates that are transported to the oceans, where carbon is stored for millennia.
She then presented studies exploring accelerated weathering — the intentional application of ground rocks to soil to capture atmospheric carbon — highlighting Brazil’s high potential, but also the associated challenges, such as logistics, monitoring (MRV) and scalability. Scientific articles supporting the potential for agricultural co-benefits and the use of industrial waste were cited.
Julia also presented the case of Terradot, a company that works with ERW in Brazil, focusing on the use of ground rocks in agricultural soils, including field data near the Mandaquari quarry (PR) and reflections on how quantifying, verifying and certifying these removals is still a challenge. The speech connected science, practical application and innovation as a promising path towards climate solutions with positive impacts on agriculture and mining.
Closing the first day of the event, Isabela Morbach (CCS Brazil) spoke about the role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in industrial processes.
Isabela Morbach presented a strategic vision on the role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the climate transition, focusing on the oil and gas (O&G) industry. Starting from the provocation “Can a sector founded on carbon extraction become the backbone of industrial decarbonization?”, she answered affirmatively, highlighting that many sectors do not have viable decarbonization alternatives other than CCS — and that the O&G sector, due to its technical knowledge and infrastructure, can be key in this process.
Isabela presented IEA projections that indicate that CCS will be responsible for approximately 26% of the CO₂ reductions required by 2050. She stressed that the O&G sector can make this ambition possible by leveraging pipelines, wells and platforms, and by providing financial support to shared CCS hubs and projects such as BECCS.
The presentation also included an overview of projects in Brazil, ranging from industrial applications to emerging technologies such as DAC (direct air capture), with examples such as Petrobras' pre-salt project and BECCS hubs in São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul. However, Isabela warned that without effective carbon pricing, CCS projects are not economically sustainable, given their high costs (between US$60 and US$300 per ton).
Finally, she highlighted the importance of interoperability between voluntary and regulated markets via the SBCE and pointed out Brazil's main regulatory challenges: clarity on post-injection liability, licensing and recognition of credits. Brazil, she says, has the potential to be a global hub for high-impact removals — if it can align climate policy, infrastructure and financing.
This is a summary of the first day of the Argus Latin America Carbon Conference. Tomorrow, the closing panels.
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