47th Week Carbon Credit Markets 2025. Curupira, Transparency International and the dynamics of the COPs; articles 6.2, 6.4, CDM; VC Certificate COP30; Carbon Markets coalitions; Nobel Prize & climate
- Art Dam
- 11 hours ago
- 6 min read
Monday, 1 December 2025.
Week 47 of Carbon Credit Markets 2025.
Curupira reviews Transparency International and helps decipher the dynamics—not always linear—of the COPs. In this edition, we summarize the decisions on articles 6.2, 6.4, CDM, present the Voluntary Cancellation Certificate of COP30, and map the new coalitions that are driving carbon markets, while international certification bodies intensify their focus on deforestation. For those who like to make things happen, we show how the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics connects to climate and highlight Bain & Company's Visionary CEO’s Guide to Sustainability 2025.
Did you follow the videos and regular posts on COP Experience's digital channels? See here how our journey in Belém ended and also subscribe to receive Carbon Credit Markets' newsletters. Details below.
COP30
COP30 Analysis: Curupira, Transparency International, and the Major Polluters
Curupira, who knows nothing about UNFCCC but made an appearance at COP30 with his fiery hair, could have said: ‘I am the COP30 mascot for a reason: a friend who warns is a true friend… but if no one listens, then my backward foot shows the way back.’
Despite the folkloric opening, our analysis below examines — based on warnings from Transparency International — the integrity weaknesses that continue to limit the deliverables of the COPs.
Transparency International — a global non-governmental organization dedicated to fighting corruption and promoting transparency and integrity in more than 100 countries — has been warning of significant risks that are compromising the credibility of the COPs, delaying critical decisions on the global climate, and contradicting the public interest and the objectives of the Paris Agreement. For some time now, the organization has highlighted three central concerns.
Capture of negotiations by major polluters, as warned in an open letter sent to the UNFCCC and the COP30 leadership in March 2025.
Influence of highly polluting industries, according to an analysis also published in March 2025 suggesting clear rules on conflicts of interest, greater transparency, and a review of the selection of COP presidencies.
Risk of “co-optation” of the COP process, warning from October 2024 about the risk of the COP multilateral process being gradually and unduly captured, in the absence of mechanisms for the integrity and legitimacy of the negotiations.
Many of the concerns anticipated by Transparency International materialized at the end of yet another COP. The evident presence of representatives from major polluters, the fragility of transparency mechanisms, and the difficulty in containing conflicts of interest demonstrated that the integrity of climate negotiations remains vulnerable.
Summary of Decisions on Article 6.2, Article 6.4 and the CDM at COP30
Article 6.2, which deals with bilateral and multilateral cooperation between countries for the exchange of mitigation outcomes (ITMOs), has made significant progress on the procedural level. The decision accepted the first round of technical reviews—involving six countries—and reinforced the need to address persistent inconsistencies in reporting and accounting systems. However, it did not introduce new operational guidelines, maintaining an environment of uncertainty for governments and businesses. The text foresees an informal dialogue in 2026, requests a technical paper on financing and infrastructure, and highlights the importance of capacity building, including initiatives such as the Japan-led partnership.
Article 6.4, which creates a centralized carbon credit mechanism overseen by the UN—successor to the former Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)—focused its decisions on transitional measures, but with limited technical guidance. The rules governing the supervisory body's mandate will only be reviewed in 2028, and the guidelines on methodologies, standards, and safeguards remain generic. Essential issues, such as the limits of the supervisory body's scope of action, the relationship between credits and NDCs, and integration with REDD+ activities, were left out. The deadline for transitioning CDM projects was extended to June 2026.
COP30 Emissions: How Brazil Guaranteed a Carbon Neutral Event
Brazil delivered COP30 as a carbon-neutral event, offsetting 130,000 tons of CO₂ emitted in transport, energy, and logistics. This neutralization was certified by the UN through the Voluntary Cancellation Certificate, which confirms the cancellation of credits from a Solid Waste Management and Carbon Financing project registered with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
The CDM, created by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to generate carbon credits in developing countries, is transitioning to the Article 6 system of the Paris Agreement. It is important to note that this conversion is not automatic: only a portion of the credits can be transferred, provided they meet stricter criteria for environmental integrity, transparency, and alignment with national climate goals.
COP30 also allowed participants to offset their own emissions, reinforcing their commitment to climate responsibility and neutrality.
Our COP Experience expedition went even further: it offset emissions twice over. Recall how we did it.
Carbon Credits
Parallel initiatives to COP30 strengthen carbon market coalitions
In addition to the formal negotiations, the COP was marked by the emergence of new initiatives focused on carbon markets:
Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets, joint effort by governments to exchange experiences and advance towards more harmonized and globally integrated regulated carbon markets, initially focusing on technical dialogues on MRV (Measurement, Reporting and Verification), carbon accounting, and the use of high-integrity credits. The initiative begins with the participation of 18 countries, including the European Union, China, and Brazil.
Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets, group which supports the shared principles released before COP30 along with an action plan, has gained new endorsements from Canada, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Peru, Switzerland, and Zambia, while Germany, Indonesia, the Netherlands, and South Africa have expressed support and welcomed the principles.
Article 6 Ambition Alliance (announcement affected by the day of the fire), a Swiss-led initiative aimed at reducing the ambition gap through the promotion of ITMOs, brings together Chile, Germany, Ghana, Luxembourg, Mongolia, Norway, Peru, Sweden, Switzerland and Zambia as participating countries.
The Article 6 Observatory was also launched, and it's worth mentioning the recent partnership between ISO and the GHG Protocol to harmonize carbon accounting standards—not to mention the various bilateral agreements signed between countries.
For the private sector, these movements signal an acceleration outside the negotiated process, with direct effects on forest financing, accounting standardization, and the expansion of compliance markets. This scenario reinforces the need to closely monitor these emerging coalitions, which could influence the global architecture of carbon markets even before the consolidation of formal rules within the UN framework.
Verra continues to develop and publish jurisdictional maps of deforestation risk.
Verra continues to advance the publication of jurisdictional deforestation risk maps, accompanied by updates on the timeline for new jurisdictions. This effort is fundamental to accelerating the registration of REDD+ projects under the VM0048 methodology and the VMD0055 module, as well as harmonizing the different stages of technical readiness of countries interested in nature-based solutions (NBS).
The most recent announcement, concerning Peru, highlights that the final maps improve the accuracy of risk allocation, strengthen the integrity of carbon credits, and allow applicants to move forward with the project registration process.
Months earlier, deforestation risk maps had already been completed for the Brazilian states of Pará and Mato Grosso — the latter bordering Bolivia. Developed by CTrees and Clark University, according to Verra, these maps follow rigorous standards and allow proponents to define the baseline for projects, an essential step for calculating emission reductions with methodological robustness.
The complete list of jurisdictions already covered, including entire countries, can be found here.
Other Highlights
Creative Destruction and the Climate
The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics recognized economists Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, and historian Joel Mokyr for their contributions to understanding sustained economic growth. Their concepts have direct implications for the climate debate. Aghion and Howitt revisit Schumpeter by developing the theory of "creative destruction," explaining how new technologies replace old ones—a logic essential for the energy transition and overcoming carbon-intensive systems with clean solutions. Mokyr, in turn, highlights the role of a society open to the exchange of ideas as an engine of innovation, reinforcing the importance of environments that favor scientific advancement in areas such as renewable energy, carbon capture, and green technologies.
The Visionary CEO’s Guide to Sustainability 2025 by Bain & Company
New report reveals that CEOs, consumers, and B2B buyers continue to connect sustainable actions to business value, even in the face of uncertainty.
Connect
Carbon Credit Markets is an educational channel and leading media outlet in the carbon markets, with a strong digital presence and a global audience in over 100 countries. It is the number 1 website in Brazil and the 17th most influential in the world, according to FeedSpot.
COP Experience is a strategic initiative that connects companies and institutions to the COPs. In 2026, COP31 will be held in Türkiye. The project offers a qualified presence, global visibility, and real impact on the international climate agenda. With a robust final report for supporters.
