44th Week Carbon Credit Markets 2025. COP30 and justice dilemmas; China leads the carbon market; IETA and Article 6; Brazil integrates systems; Singapore, Peru, and Portugal advance; book for leaders
- Art Dam
- 6 days ago
- 6 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
Monday, 10 November 2025.
Week 44 of Carbon Credit Markets 2025. Carbon Credits on the Agenda in COP30’s First Week
Weekly HighlightsCOP30 exposes tensions between climate ambition and feasibility: who pays and who decides? China expands its carbon market as a central strategy through 2035, while Brazil proposes integrating global systems with a focus on the Amazon. Singapore and Peru move forward with bilateral agreements, and IETA launches a tool to track climate goals. The voluntary market seeks greater integrity, with initiatives like Portugal’s new platform and Brazil’s updated regulation for credits under the Paris Agreement.
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COP30
Who Pays, Who Decides, Who Develops?The article “Will COP30 Deliver?”, published by Project Syndicate — whose mission is to “democratize access to high-level ideas” — and signed by influential figures such as María Fernanda Espinosa, Patricia Espinosa, Jayati Ghosh, Mahmoud Mohieldin, Marina Romanello, Vera Songwe, and Laurence Tubiana, argues that COP30’s success depends on progress in climate finance, justice, public health, and tropical forest preservation. However, it warns that these diplomatic agendas fail to address the core dilemmas of climate action: who pays, who decides, and who develops. The proposal to raise climate funding from $300 billion to $1.3 trillion is ambitious but lacks clarity on who will contribute and how countries like Brazil could access these resources without compromising sovereignty. The creation of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility shows promise but risks reinforcing vague compensation mechanisms for the Global South. Brazil is mentioned as a key player, yet treated more as a symbolic backdrop than a strategic negotiator, with no reference to its industry, infrastructure, or bioeconomy. Without strong financial commitments, technology transfer, and market access, the promise of a just transition remains rhetorical — and Brazil risks being seen as the North’s ecological reserve while its population continues to face deep inequalities.
International Panorama of Carbon Credits
China expands carbon market and reinforces climate commitment in new NDC (Nov/2025).
China’s new NDC for 2035 reinforces the carbon market as a central instrument of climate policy. (1) Regulated market: the country already operates the world’s largest emissions trading system, covering more than 5 billion tons of CO₂ per year, with 7.28 billion tons traded and approximately 498.3 billion yuan moved by September 2025. The expansion includes new sectors, paid auctions and trading instruments. (2) Voluntary market (CCER): launched to complement the regulated system, it has already moved 2.67 billion yuan with more than 318,000 tons traded, encouraging low, zero and negative carbon technologies. (3) Strategic direction: the NDC foresees, by 2035, a more effective, dynamic and internationally influential market. (4) Global role: China seeks to consolidate its market as the main mechanism for carbon pricing and support for the green transition.
Brazil proposes a voluntary coalition to integrate existing carbon markets (Oct/2025).
During preparations for COP30, Brazil presented a proposal to integrate carbon markets globally, going beyond what is already foreseen in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Although this article establishes mechanisms for international cooperation for the exchange of carbon credits, Brazil proposes the creation of an Open Coalition that voluntarily connects existing systems — such as those of the European Union, China, California, and the new Brazilian regulated market — through common minimum standards. The initiative seeks to promote a more transparent, efficient, and fair system, focusing on the inclusion of developing countries and the valuation of credits generated by actions to preserve the Amazon. The proposal was well received at events parallel to COP30 and will be further developed until its possible formalization at the conference.
Singapore and Peru launch call for carbon credit projects under the Paris Agreement (Oct/2025).
On the 24th, Singapore and Peru opened applications for carbon credit projects under their Implementation Agreement, signed on April 1, 2025, in accordance with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Approved projects should generate credits that companies in Singapore can use to offset up to 5% of their taxable emissions. In addition, Singapore has committed to allocating 5% of the value of the credits to adaptation measures in Peru, such as coastal protection and heat resilience. To be eligible, among several conditions, the credits must represent reductions or removals of emissions between 2021 and 2030, with Gold Standard and Verified Carbon Standard methodologies being accepted, focusing on thermal energy, waste management, reforestation and forest conservation. This initiative is part of Singapore's strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, considering its internal energy limitations. The country has already signed similar agreements with ten nations, including Chile, Ghana, Mongolia, and Vietnam.
IETA Launches Global Tracker to Monitor Carbon Credits and Article 6 Implementation (Oct/2025).
On the 29th, IETA launched an interactive tracker that monitors the individualized progress of countries in implementing the updated climate targets (NDC 3.0) and applying Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, aimed at international cooperation for emissions reduction. The tool brings together fact sheets by country and comparative maps, offering a clear and accessible view of global progress towards climate commitments, based on the report "Scaling up NDC 3.0 ambition through Article 6".
Initiatives in Carbon Credit Markets
Portugal advances in the Voluntary Carbon Market with a national platform and forestry methodology (Oct/2025).
The Portuguese Government took a pioneering step in the country's climate policy on the 24th of last month. This involves the launch of the digital platform www.mvcarbono.pt, which allows the registration, transaction and cancellation of carbon credits generated in that country, focusing on transparency and environmental integrity. The first methodology published, "New Afforestations in Portugal", was validated by experts and aligns with the Forest Intervention Plan 2025–2050. The market will be accessible to companies, municipalities and citizens, promoting investments in carbon sequestration projects and economically valuing the services of forest ecosystems. According to the Minister of Environment and Energy, Maria da Graça Carvalho, this is an essential instrument to boost climate action and foster green jobs.
Regulatory step to integrate Brazil into the global carbon market under the Paris Agreement (Oct/2025).
Ministry of the Environment's Ministerial Decree No. 1,479, of October 10, 2025, defined the procedures for Brazilian projects from the former Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to migrate to the new Paris Agreement Carbon Credit Mechanism (PACM). The main focus is on the validation and transition of projects that generate carbon credits. The Designated National Authority (DNA), represented by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, will be responsible for assessing whether the projects are eligible to generate internationally recognized carbon credits, such as A6.4ERs. However, DNA approval does not automatically guarantee the issuance or transfer of these credits, which will depend on additional UNFCCC regulations.
Recommended Reading
The book The New Global Possible, by Ani Dasgupta (CEO of the World Resources Institute), offers a bold and hopeful vision for tackling major global challenges — such as the climate crisis, inequality, and the breakdown of international cooperation. Based on over 100 interviews with global leaders, the work highlights transformative partnerships, public policy insights, and pathways toward a just energy transition. It’s a call to action for those who believe in systemic and sustainable solutions. Learn more.
Remember our post from last week about Carbon Credits, international regulatory progress, the valuation of Amazon-based credits, local conservation initiatives, the expected strong growth of the voluntary market by 2050, and deep ethical reflections. Here, you’re always surprised — and you learn before everyone else.
Connect
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COP Experience is a strategic initiative that connects companies and institutions to COP30, which will be held in November 2025. The project offers a qualified presence, global visibility, and real impact on the international climate agenda.
