43rd Week Carbon Credit Markets 2025. Amazon’s valuation rises, study; methane enters Article 6; ETS2 pressures EU; Kenya gains ground; global market may grow 35x; UNIDROIT update property rights
- Art Dam
- Nov 2
- 5 min read
Monday, 03 November 2025.
Week 43 of Carbon Credit Markets 2025. Carbon credits gain prominence in the final stretch leading up to COP30.
Highlights of the Week
In this edition, we've compiled strategic articles to guide the COP30 coverage, focusing on technical, political, regulatory, and geopolitical aspects that help to understand the direction of carbon markets worldwide. Follow our journey to the conference and delve into the themes shaping the future of carbon markets. If you're looking for carbon credits with traceability and proven environmental impact, we have availability through partners with solid initiatives. Contact us by email.
COP Experience: 3,000 km to Belém
We're on our way to COP30 in a motorhome, crossing Brazil in 4 days to share everything that happens at the conference. Follow along on our digital channels and experience this journey with us.
As we continue our journey towards the conference, we invite you to delve into the themes shaping this global transformation. And if you're looking for carbon credits with traceability and environmental impact, count on our partners. Contact us by email.
International Panorama
Operational Launch of the New Global Carbon Market: First Methodology Approved for the Paris Agreement (Oct/2025).
On the 30th of last month, the UN supervisory body for Article 6.4 approved its first official methodology for the carbon market under the Paris Agreement. This methodology defines how projects that reduce methane emissions from landfills can generate carbon credits aligned with the Agreement. It introduces a downward adjustment system, where more sustainable solutions — such as using methane for energy generation — receive more credits over time than less efficient practices, such as simply burning the gas. The decision marks the operational launch of the new global carbon market, with other methodologies (such as renewable energies) expected to be approved in the future.
EU prepares new carbon market for buildings and road transport, with attention to prices (Oct/2025).
The European Commission announced measures to ensure a stable start to the new Emissions Trading System (ETS2), which will come into effect in 2027 and cover the building and road transport sectors. To avoid negative impacts on energy prices and protect consumers, the plan foresees gradual auctions of licenses, market monitoring, and the use of the Social Climate Fund. After meetings in Brasília—where he discussed NDCs, carbon markets, and adaptation for COP30—European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra acknowledged concerns about the financial impact of ETS2 and announced measures to ensure more stable and predictable prices, such as price caps, gradual release of licenses, and advance revenue to support citizens and businesses.
Kenyan President defends carbon credits as key to climate justice in Africa (Oct/2025).
On the 9th, William Ruto appealed for international solidarity with Africa in climate action, highlighting carbon credits as an essential instrument to finance sustainable solutions and boost green development on the continent. About a year earlier, on September 18, 2024, S&P Global Commodity Insights had announced a partnership with Kenya, recognizing it as the "first African nation to create a registry of projects for deforestation reduction," reinforcing its leadership in the carbon credit market.
New NDCs submitted.
While Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Zambia, Venezuela, Mauritania, Brunei Darussalam, and Ivory Coast have submitted updates to their NDCs in recent days, we are still awaiting formal commitments from strategic players such as the European Union, China, India, and Mexico. Here is our last post from a few weeks ago when we published more specifically on this topic: "Has your country updated its NDC yet? COP30 is just a few days away."
Studies and Projections
Scientific Study: Amazonia Is Sequestering More Carbon — And This Could Redefine Carbon Credits (Sept/2025).
Analyzing 188 permanent plots of mature forest across the Amazon, the study “Increasing tree size across Amazonia,” published in Nature Plants, shows that the average diameter of trees has increased by about 7% in the last 30 years — possibly driven by the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. This structural change indicates a greater capacity for carbon sequestration per tree, with direct implications for the carbon credit markets. If confirmed by robust methodologies, this trend could expand the potential for generating credits in conservation, REDD+, and reforestation projects. In practice, forests with larger trees represent higher carbon stocks, becoming strategic environmental assets for climate policies and offsetting mechanisms. The study was conducted by an international team of researchers, led by scientists from UFOPA, INPA, and the University of Leeds.
Verified Carbon Credits: UNIDROIT Seeks Consensus on Property Rights (Sept/2025).
Between September 10 and 12, the sixth session of the UNIDROIT Working Group discussed the Principles on Verified Carbon Credits (VCCs), highlighting their definition and legal framework as assets subject to property rights. The group reaffirmed that the Principles apply only to VCCs registered in formal systems, excluding unverified credits, with the aim of ensuring legal certainty and market integrity. Principle 4, on the law applicable to the property rights of VCCs, was extensively debated. Participants sought clear criteria for legal connection, such as the place of registration, and highlighted the importance of aligning the instrument with the work of the Hague Conference. There was consensus that VCCs should have specific legal attributes to facilitate their circulation in the secondary market.
BloombergNEF: The global carbon credit market could grow 20 to 35 times by 2050 (Aug/2025).
Driven by a reset focused on integrity and impact — with emphasis on nature-based solutions and carbon removal technologies — average prices could reach $60/tCO₂e in 2030 and $104/tCO₂e in 2050, depending on the predominant sectors. Read the full analysis in Long-Term Carbon Credit Supply Outlook 2025.
Initiatives
Landowners in the state of São Paulo, Brazil have a unique opportunity to receive payment for environmental services (PES) by creating Private Natural Heritage Reserves (RPPNs) (Sept/2025).
The Public Call for Proposals No. 41/2025 offers financial support according to the size, location, and ecological importance of the area, with additional bonuses for conservation actions. Individuals or legal entities with regularized properties of at least 10 hectares can participate. Proposals must be submitted to the Forestry Foundation by the beginning of March 2026. Learn more in the Call for Proposals itself.
Paris Agreement Alignment Documentation.
The Gold Standard is accepting contributions until November 5th to improve the Paris Agreement alignment documentation, focusing on the clarity of procedures and the effectiveness of guidance.
Recommended Readings
“I used to think the top environmental problems were biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and climate change. I thought that with 30 years of good science we could address those problems. But I was wrong. The top environmental problems are selfishness, greed and apathy — and to deal with those we need a spiritual and cultural transformation. And we scientists don’t know how to do that.” This is what James Gustave “Gus” Speth — a Yale-educated environmental lawyer, founder of WRI, former White House adviser and author of influential works on sustainability and the green economy — said on BBC Radio 4’s Shared Planet: Religion and Nature program, broadcast on October 1, 2013.
Our analyses on Agribusiness and Hydrogen — here, you're always surprised and learn before everyone else.
Connect
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COP Experience is a strategic initiative that connects companies and institutions to COP30, which will be held in November 2025. The project offers a qualified presence, global visibility, and real impact on the international climate agenda.
