38th Week Carbon Credit Markets 2025. 🇮🇩COP30 Roadshow; Pinheiro Neto; Verra-Kariba⚠️; NDCs speeding up; 🇨🇦 and carbon removal; Sustainability Nobel; 🥇VCM; ✈️CORSIA-Argus; Climate Trace; Hydrogen

Monday, 29 September 2025.

Highlights from the 38th Carbon Credit Markets 2025 week.

- Carbon Credits. 🇮🇩 Indonesia will showcase 60 million certified carbon credits at COP30 to attract global investors; 🌿 Brazilian lawyers stress the urgent need to strengthen carbon markets and highlight the role of AI in sustainability; ⚠️ Verra responds to the Kariba case, exposing flaws in REDD+ projects and reinforcing the call for transparency in the voluntary market.

- Other Highlights. 🚨NDCs accelerate, nearly 100 countries pledge before COP30, but some major emitters still haven’t moved; 🇨🇦 Canada launches a plan to become a global leader in carbon removal, backed by over 100 companies; 🏆 The 2025 Sustainability Nobel will be awarded in Miami🇺🇸; 🥇Environmental Finance ranking of leaders in the voluntary carbon market.

- Opportunities. ✈️ Argus report on the CORSIA carbon market; 🌍 Climate Trace launches a tool that identifies ultra-fine pollution emitters impacting human health; ⚡ New edition of the Hydrogen Europe Quarterly; 🎓 IPCC seeks experts to review its report on climate change and cities.

- Events. São Paulo Energy Plan 2034, SAE Congress Brazil 2025, Chile Carbon Forum, Webinar Gold Standard on soil organic carbon, the Forest Sciences Symposium, Singapore Carbon Market & Investor Forum, Carbon Markets Africa Summit, IFRS Sustainability Symposium.

CARBON CREDITS

🇮🇩 Indonesia to present 60 million tons of carbon credits at COP30

Indonesia, which regularly appears in Carbon Credit Markets posts, announced it will showcase Paris Agreement–verified carbon credits during #COP30 in Belém, aiming to attract international buyers, boost carbon trading, and strengthen the IDXCarbon platform as a global benchmark. 🔗 Source: ANTARA News, Indonesia’s official news agency.

🌿 Pinheiro Neto highlights the strategic role of carbon credits in responding to the global climate crisis

With 25 of the planet’s 35 vital signs at critical levels, the global carbon credit market emerges as an essential tool to drive the green economy and mitigate environmental impacts. The e-book published by Pinheiro Neto Advogados, in partnership with MIT Sloan Management Review Brasil, analyzes the progress, challenges, and importance of regulating this market, while also discussing the role of artificial intelligence in sustainability. The publication emphasizes that strengthening this system is urgent to confront growing climate risks.

🌳 Verra cancels surplus credits from the Kariba project and initiates independent review 

On September 23, Verra announced the cancellation of surplus carbon credits from the Kariba REDD+ project in Zimbabwe, after identifying inconsistencies in benefit allocation and project governance. The organization also launched an independent review to assess the standards and practices involved, aiming to restore trust in the voluntary carbon market. The project, which had already issued over 36 million credits, was suspended from Verra’s platform until the review is completed.

Back in November 2023, we had already reported on the Kariba project, noting that the collapse of the partnership between South Pole and Carbon Green Investments had sent shockwaves through the sector, raising concerns about transparency, resource distribution, and real impacts on local communities. At the time, Verra itself had issued a statement pointing to its “buffer pool mechanism” as a mitigation measure for the risk of cancellation of credits granted since the beginning of Kariba.

The Kariba situation has become emblematic of the challenges faced by large REDD+ projects and reinforces the need for greater rigor and accountability in the carbon credit market.

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS

🚨Has your country updated its NDC yet? See who’s leading 

If last week we covered 9 new climate commitments — NDCs, the alerts now seem to be having an effect. In the past 7 days, another 18 countries have followed suit — although several major emitters have yet to speak out.

According to the UNFCCC, nearly 100 countries have announced they will submit new NDCs before COP30 in Belém, including the 🇪🇺 European Union, which admitted a delay in the official submission due to disagreements among member states over issues such as the use of international carbon credits.

Here is the list (as of September 27, 2025) of countries that have already updated their NDCs:

2024 (6)

United Arab Emirates (Nov 6), Brazil (Nov 13), Switzerland (Nov 14), United States (Dec 19), Botswana (Dec 24), Uruguay (Dec 30)

2025 - 1st. Quarter (15)

United Kingdom (Jan 30), New Zealand (Jan 31), Lesotho and Andorra (Feb 5), Saint Lucia and Ecuador (Feb 6), Zimbabwe, Marshall Islands and Singapore (Feb 10), Canada (Feb 12), Japan (Feb 18), Montenegro (Feb 21), Cuba and Maldives (Feb 27), Zambia (Mar 10)

2025 - 2nd. Quarter (6)

Kenya (Apr 30), Moldova (May 6), Nepal (May 19), Belize (Jun 14), Somalia (Jun 19), Norway (Jun 26)

2025 - 3rd. Quarter (31)

Monaco (Jul 16), Niue (Jul 17), Cambodia (Aug 8), Solomon Islands (Aug 13), Barbados (Aug 30), Somalia (Sep 8), Liechtenstein (Sep 10), Iceland (Sep 12), Serbia (Sep 12), Angola (Sep 13), Vatican (Sep 16), Australia (Sep 18), Nicaragua (Sep 19), Jamaica, Eswatini, Honduras, Tunisia, Nigeria and Jordan (Sep 22), Chile and Tonga (Sep 23), Mongolia, Vanuatu, Micronesia, Pakistan and Liberia (Sep 24), Sri Lanka, Colombia and Iceland (Sep 25), Tuvalu and Ethiopia (Sep 26)

🇨🇦 The document Boosting Canada’s Economy has been released, featuring policy recommendations to position Canada as a global hub for carbon removal. The document was prepared by a Canadian task force, part of the Carbon Business Council, a global coalition of over 100 carbon removal companies.

🏆 The 2025 Nobel Sustainability Prize (*) will be awarded in December in Miami, at the Vizcaya Museum and Gardens. The event will recognize advances in energy, water, and agriculture, bringing together global leaders during the Summit of the Nobel Sustainability Trust Foundation (NST). The choice of Miami 🇺🇸 highlights its significance as a symbol of climate vulnerability and urban resilience.

(*) The so-called Nobel Sustainability Prize is not yet an official award like the traditional Nobel Prizes presented in Stockholm and Oslo. However, in 2024, the World Nobel Academy of Sciences for Sustainability was established — an international initiative endorsed by the Nobel family, and the first dedicated exclusively to the field of sustainability. Revisit and be amazed by the history of the Nobel Family.

🥇Winners of the 2025 Environmental Finance rankings. Environmental Finance's Voluntary Carbon Market Rankings is an annual industry survey in which participants vote for leading companies and initiatives that demonstrate best practices or innovation. With 3,365 votes distributed across 23 categories, beyond the highlighted companies and initiatives, the results clearly revealed a demand for greater standardization and clarity in the sector. 🔗 Source: Environmental Finance

OPPORTUNITIES

✈️ Want to understand how the carbon market is responding to CORSIA requirements? Argus Media has released an exclusive report on pricing and liquidity in the market for carbon credits eligible under the international aviation program. The material offers strategic insights for those working in or investing in carbon, highlighting price trends, buyer behavior, and regulatory implications. Here’s the path to download the full report.

🌍 Select your city. A new tool shows how PM2.5 pollution affects the health of 1.6 billion people in urban areas — Climate TRACE — which Carbon Credit Markets had already reported on during COP28 — has launched an innovative feature that visualizes the spread of hazardous pollutants and reveals the top emitters linked to the climate crisis and public health. PM2.5 pollution refers to the presence of fine particles in the air with a diameter equal to or less than 2.5 micrometers — about 30 times smaller than the thickness of a human hair. These particles are extremely dangerous because they can penetrate deep into the lungs and even reach the bloodstream.🔗 Tool | Press release | FAQ

⚡ The new edition of Hydrogen Europe Quarterly is out! — Enjoy the highlights from European Hydrogen Week and dive into the trends shaping the future of clean energy. 🔗 Source: Hydrogen Europe Quarterly – Q3 2025

🌍 The IPCC invites experts to apply by November 30, 2025, to scientifically review the draft of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities.

EVENTS

🇧🇷📍September 30th, "2nd Workshop of the São Paulo State Ten-Year Energy Plan 2034. Hosted by the Secretariat for Environment, Infrastructure and Logistics of the State of São Paulo. Live broadcast on YouTube.

🇧🇷📍October 7th and 8th, SAE Brazil 2025 Congress. In São Paulo.

🇨🇱📍October 7th and 8th, Chile Carbon Forum. Facultad de Economía y Negocios de la Universidad de Chile.

🖥️📍October 14, Gold Standard Webinar on Soil Organic Carbon. Focused on the new guidelines for the organic carbon model, with experts in nature-based solutions, agricultural consulting, and data innovation discussing the model’s advancements and practical applications.

🇧🇷🌳 October 14-16, Carbon Market: The Benefits for the Forestry Sector - 5th Symposium on Forest Sciences of Espírito Santo, Brazil. By the Federal University of Espírito Santo.

🇸🇬📍October 16-17, Singapore Carbon Market & Investor Forum. By the Carbon Market Institute.

🇿🇦📍October 21-23, Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS). Johannesburg, South Africa.

🇬🇧🖥️📍October 30, IFRS Sustainability Symposium ‘Pathways to adoption’. Online or in person at Convene Sancroft, St. Paul’s, London.

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NDCs Mosaic as at September 27 2025