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21st week CCM 2026. Intense week; World Bank, markets, carbon price; UN methodology N₂O; SBCE sectors; ICJ & Climate Justice; Europe heats up; Vale emissions; Climate liabilities; Harrison Ford
- Art Dam
- 20 minutes ago
- 8 min read
Monday, 25 May 2026.
The summarized version of the Carbon Credit Markets Yearbook 2025 is now available for free download, after a few months of exclusive access for our supporters. In roughly 30 pages — in Portuguese and English — you get an up‑to‑date and reliable overview of carbon markets, Article 6, energy transition, hydrogen, climate governance, and international regulatory developments shaping 2026. It is a concise, to‑the‑point guide and the gateway to the full version, a 380‑page report in Portuguese, still available for purchase upon sign up and email request. Download it now and access an essential reference for analysis and decision‑making. Just click the image on the left at the top of the page.
21th Week Carbon Credit Markets in 2026
If you like - listening to “Rivers in the Wind” or others at your choice.
Carbon markets in a week marked by three key developments: the World Bank indicates that the sector has entered a phase of maturity, with almost a third of global emissions already priced and systems moving towards a structural pricing logic; the UN approved its second methodology for carbon markets — after that for landfill methane — now targeting the potent industrial gas N₂O, whose warming potential is about 273 times greater than that of CO₂; and Brazil defined the 17 sectors that will integrate the future national emissions market.
Other Highlights: The UN General Assembly, with the support of 141 countries, endorsed the opinion of the International Court of Justice stating that the climate crisis creates legal obligations for countries—a milestone in climate justice that we had already been reporting on; and a new report from the WMO and Copernicus confirms that Europe is experiencing its hottest period on record, despite advances in renewables.
And to conclude with the Shorts: Vale published its new GHG emissions inventory, audited and aligned with international standards, highlighting that 98% of its emissions are in Scope 3 — a level of transparency still rare in the sector; a study by RAC indicates that the market already treats corporate emissions as a financial liability, penalizing companies with higher climate risk; and Harrison Ford gained attention by giving a speech with an urgent tone and climate responsibility to ASU graduates.
In addition to a list of relevant events.
Carbon Credits
World Bank: The Maturity of Carbon Markets and the Arrival of the Era of Structural Pricing
As we anticipated a few days ago, the World Bank Group published its latest State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, with impressive data — and here we delve deeper into the analysis compared to the previous article.
The report shows that we are entering a phase of structural maturity in carbon markets — both regulated and voluntary.
In regulated markets, the combination of expanding coverage (29% of global emissions already priced), consistent price increases (global average of US$21/tCO₂e), and revenue growth (US$107 billion in 2025) reveals a clear trend: carbon has ceased to be a peripheral instrument and has become economic infrastructure. The entry of major emerging economies—India, Japan, Vietnam—and the indirect pressure from the European CBAM are accelerating regulatory convergence, while the trend towards interoperability (Open Coalition, IFCMA, MRV standards) indicates that the future will be one of connected systems, with cross-border liquidity and less regulatory asymmetry. In parallel, the migration of intensive sectors (industry, waste, mining) into the ETSs reinforces the argument that carbon is becoming an unavoidable operational cost.
In voluntary markets, the report confirms a profound reconfiguration: credit issuances grew by 8%, but demand is shifting towards projects with high integrity, high ratings, and international eligibility (such as CORSIA). Pricing reflects this: CORSIA-eligible credits maintain a premium of US$1.50–6/tCO₂e, while removal projects—especially engineering and biochar—are already operating at levels of US$100–600/tCO₂e, driven by corporate offtakes that have tripled to US$12 billion. The decline in retirements in 2025 does not indicate a contraction, but rather compliance cycles (as in the case of California) and a transition to advance purchases via long-term contracts. The emergence of PACM as an operational mechanism adds a new vector of sovereign supply, with the potential to alter prices, liquidity, and quality standards in the coming years.
UN approves 2nd methodology enabling carbon credits, now for industrial reduction of N₂O
The UN body responsible for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement adopted on May 21, 2026, a new methodology – the second on the list, following projects that reduce methane emissions in landfills – that allows projects to reduce nitrous oxide (N₂O) in nitric acid plants to generate carbon credits under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. The decision, taken in Bonn, expands the scope of the global carbon market by incorporating one of the most potent greenhouse gases and creates standardized monitoring rules, reinforcing industrial decarbonization as part of climate goals.
According to NOAA, atmospheric concentrations of N₂O continue at a historic high, growing by about 1.3 ppb/year and reaching the highest level ever recorded in 2023. This gas is the third most significant contributor to global warming, possessing 273 times the warming potential of CO₂, remaining in the atmosphere for over 100 years, and is currently the main culprit in the destruction of the ozone layer, making it critical in the context of climate change.
The new methodology should primarily benefit the fertilizer industry and the heavy chemical sector, which operate between 400 and 600 nitric acid plants worldwide, responsible for approximately 70 million tons/year of production and a large portion of industrial N₂O emissions, according to the IEA. Countries with large chemical industries and lower adoption of abatement technologies — such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa — tend to have greater potential for generating credits, while economies that are already more controlled, such as the US, Germany, and Poland, may reduce less because they already have catalysts widely installed.
Brazil defines 17 sectors that will be part of the future national emissions trading system
On May 19, 2026, the Brazilian government presented the proposal for the Regulated Carbon Market (SBCE), defining a preliminary coverage of 17 sectors of the economy, to be incorporated gradually until 2031. The proposal establishes that Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) obligations will be introduced in three stages:
2027, with paper and pulp, iron and steel, cement, primary aluminum, oil and gas exploration and production, refining and air transport;
2029, with mining, recycled aluminum, the electricity sector, glass, food and beverages, chemicals, ceramics, and waste; and
2031, with road, waterway and rail transport.
Considering the progressive entry of these 17 sectors, we estimate that Brazil should cumulatively cover approximately 55–60% of fossil and industrial emissions by 2027, 75–85% by 2029, and approximately 90–95% from 2031 onwards.
In addition to MRV's rules, the system provides for mandatory emission limits, quota allocation, compensation mechanisms, and a regulatory transition for more carbon-intensive activities.
In parallel, on May 13, Interministerial Decree No. 69/2026 established administrative and governance guidelines related to the regulatory process, reinforcing the institutional movement towards international harmonization, competitiveness, and regulatory predictability. The image below shows the implementation schedule for these steps.
Others Highlights
More than 140 countries endorse International Court of Justice decision on climate duty — as we anticipated
The UN General Assembly approved a landmark resolution on May 20, 2026, endorsing the opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), stating that the climate crisis constitutes a legal obligation of countries — not just a political choice. With the support of 141 countries — and only 28 abstentions — the move was described by António Guterres as a “powerful affirmation of international law, climate justice and science”. The resolution reinforces that failing to protect the climate system can violate international law, opening the way for accountability and reparations by the most affected countries, and demands that governments take all possible measures to avoid significant damage to the climate, cooperate in good faith and fully comply with the Paris Agreement.
In July 2025, readers of CarbonCreditMarkets.com had already followed the landmark ICJ opinion, which classified the climate crisis as an “urgent and existential threat” and explicitly cited CORSIA, reinforcing that States have a legal obligation to consider these commitments.
During COP30 in Belém, we also highlighted — given the strong international presence — the panel “Fiji Islands: From the Courts to the COP — How the decision of the International Court of Justice influences climate negotiations,” covered in our publication Panorama Integrado da COP30, part of the COP Experience expedition.
Europe Registers Record Warming and Extreme Climate Impacts, New Report
The European State of the Climate 2025 report, published on April 29, 2026 by Copernicus ECMWF and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), shows that Europe is the fastest-warming continent, with above-average temperatures, record sea temperatures, more than 1 million hectares burned by forest fires, and storms and floods affecting thousands. At the same time, renewable energies reached 46.4% of European electricity – with a record 12.5% from solar – reinforcing the urgency of the energy transition in the face of the growing impacts of climate change. For comparison, Brazil already exceeds 80% renewable electricity, maintaining one of the cleanest electricity matrices in the world, mainly with hydroelectric, wind, solar and biomass.
Shorts & Opportunities
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report – Scopes 1, 2 and 3 – 2025. On May 19th, Vale took another important step in consolidating its climate management by publishing an inventory aligned with international benchmarks and submitted to an independent audit. In a sector where few global giants adopt this level of rigor, the company stands out by acknowledging that “more than 98% of its total emissions are outside its direct control” and yet presenting a robust, transparent, and technically consistent measurement. This level of detail is crucial to guide decarbonization and strengthen stakeholder confidence. For those who follow climate, mining, and energy transition, it is worth exploring the 39 pages of the report — one of the most advanced materials in the sector.
“Carbon Liabilities Are Priced: Carbon-Adjusted Debt Predicts Underperformance” an article published on May 19, 2026, in RAC – Revista de Administração Contemporânea by Thiago Gil and Wesley Mendes-da-Silva, shows that corporate carbon emissions are already treated by the market as a financial liability: by transforming emissions into a carbon-adjusted cost of debt, the authors demonstrate that Brazilian companies with a higher “carbon liability” face higher debt costs and lower equity returns, especially when global carbon prices rise in Brazilian reais—evidence that investors already internalize climate risk in credit, valuation, and market performance. We thank Professor Oscar Malvessi for sharing this work with us.
“The world my generation left you, is a real mess”. Harrison Ford recently gained prominence in the American press for his urgent, environmentally conscious, and socially engaged speech on May 11, 2026, to graduating students at Arizona State University. It's worth watching and listening to.
Events
May
🇵🇪 27 - 28, Peru Carbon Forum 2026, 3ra edición, ESAN, Lima, Peru.
July
🇫🇷 1–2, Green Growth and Sustainable Development (GGSD) Forum 2026. In Paris and online.
🇯🇵 22, Strengthening Local Resilience to Planetary Crises: Scaling up Synergistic Solutions. Kobe, Japan, in-person and online.
🇧🇷 24, 2nd Brazilian Conference on Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Curitiba, Brazil.
August
🇧🇷 27 - 28, Brazilian Climate and Carbon Conference, Brazil NBS Alliance.
September
🇨🇳15, Carbon Market Conference. Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Market, in Wuhan, China.
October
🇦🇿🇺🇳 5 - 9, UNFCCC Climate Week 2, Baku, Azerbaijan.
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