Tuesday, 29 October 2024.
Another Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published last week, 24 de October.
This time titled “Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!”, about the “massive gap between countries rhetoric and reality”.
As climate impacts intensify globally, nations must deliver a few months away stronger ambition and action in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Maybe one of the key purposes of this 2024 edition of the report is “naming and shaming” (i.e. publicly indicating) countries more and less likely to achieve their NDCs. And also pointing the finger at the G20 countries.
According to the executive summary, “GHG emissions across the G20 members also increased in 2023 and accounted for 77 per cent of global emissions. If all African Union countries are added to the G20 total, more than doubling the number of countries from 44 to 99, total emissions increase by just 5 percentage points to 82 per cent. The six largest GHG emitters accounted for 63 per cent of global GHG emissions. By contrast, least developed countries accounted for only 3 per cent.”
The report alerts that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 were 1.3 per cent higher than 2022 levels, setting a new record of 57.1 GtCO2e (ton of carbon dioxide equivalent), of which:
26% or 15.1 GtCO2e from the power sector (i.e. electricity production);
15% or 8.4 GtCO2e transport;
11% or 6.5 GtCO2e industry;
11% or 6.5 GtCO2e agriculture;
10% fuel production (i.e. oil, gas, solid fuels);
9% industrial processes to produce cement, chemicals and metals;
7% land-use change and forestry (LULUCF);
6% buildings; and
4% solid and liquid waste.
“The magnitude of the challenge is indisputable. At the same time, there are abundant opportunities for accelerating mitigation action … Technology developments, particularly in wind and solar energy, continue to exceed expectations … The updated assessment of sectoral emission reduction potentials included in this year’s report shows that the techno-economic emission reduction potential based on existing technologies and at costs below US$200 per tCO2e remains sufficient to bridge the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035. But this will require overcoming formidable policy, governance, institutional and technical barriers as well as an unprecedented increase in the support provided to developing countries along with a redesigning of the international financial architecture.”
At this US$200/tCO2e cost level, the report indicates 41 GtCO2e (adjusted by some overlaps) as the annual mitigation potential by 2035, divided as follows by sector:
14.7 GtCO2e in Energy;
12.8 GtCO2e in Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU);
6.6 GtCO2e in Industry;
4.8 GtCO2e in Transport;
4.2 GtCO2e in Buildings; and
2.4 GtCO2e other.
With AFOLU in the 2nd place in terms of potential, would that mean that nature related solutions are seen by the body of scientists behind this report as more urgently relevant than technological mitigation itself, by sectors such as industry and transportation, for example? It appears so.
The report is the 15th edition in a series that brings together many of the world’s top climate scientists to look at future trends in greenhouse gas emissions and provide potential solutions to the challenge of global warming.
Click at the image below to access this latest Emissions Gap Report at UNEP’s portal, including the 100 pages full report.
And here to go directly to the 14 pages Executive Summary.
