Today is Thursday, November 30, 2023.
With the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) starting today in Dubai, and going until 12 December, important to recall the newest report from UN Climate Change (UNFCCC), issued last 14 November, the "Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Synthesis report by the secretariat".
With an extremly serious message: national climate action plans remain insufficient. Even with increased efforts by some countries.
This tone was already set when the 1st Global Stocktake report was released last September 8 by the same UNFCCC.
This newest report synthesizes information from the 168 latest available nationally determined contributions communicated by 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement and recorded in the registry of nationally determined contributions (NDC) as at 25 September 2023.
According to this press release, "Today’s report shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade".
Here some other highlights from the 45-pages report:
- A total of 95% of Parties provided the information necessary and in accordance with the COP guidance.
- In terms of greenhouse gases, all NDCs cover CO2 emissions, 91% cover CH4, 89% cover N2O, 54% cover HFCs, 36% cover PFCs and SF6 and 26% cover NF3.
- 77% of Parties stated that they plan to or will possibly use at least one type of voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
- In terms of adaptation priorities, the NDCs illustrate that Parties continue to focus on water resources, food production and nutrition security, terrestrial and wetland ecosystems, key economic sectors and services, and human health; followed by disaster risk management, coastal and low-lying areas, urban areas and human habitats, livelihoods and poverty, and ocean ecosystems.
- Domestic mitigation measures for renewable energy generation were most frequently mentioned by 90% of Parties, followed by measures for improving energy efficiency of buildings.
- Adaptation actions and economic diversification plans with mitigation co-benefits include afforestation and reforestation activities, climate-smart agriculture, reducing food waste, vertical farming, adapting coastal ecosystems, conservation plans for protected areas, nature-based solutions, increasing the share of renewable sources in energy generation, improving energy efficiency, carbon dioxide capture and storage, fuel switch and fuel price reforms in the transport sector, and moving to circular economy for better waste management.
- Of the Parties, 21% provided information on coverage of specific sectors ... such as shipping and aviation, cooling, food production, transport, mining or buildings, while others mentioned specific carbon pools, oceans or blue carbon.
- 46% of Parties provided quantitative estimates of financial support for NDC implementation.
- A total of 61% of Parties identified certain types of technology that they intend to use, most frequently related to the energy, agriculture, water and waste sectors.
- Finally, 75% of Parties identified capacity-building as a prerequisite for NDC implementation.
Shifting to low- or zero-carbon fuels including biofuels and hydrogen continued to be frequently or widely indicated as key mitigation options relevant to reducing the carbon intensity of electricity and fuels.
We from Carbon Credit Markets found particularly interesting report's chapter "E. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals", specifically due to the following sub-sections:
- Land use, land-use change and forestry.
- and Voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
Footnotes are also precious:
- number 44, page 13: "A large fraction of these forest sinks is part of the natural carbon cycle response to elevated CO2 concentrations and can hence be regarded as indirect (but not direct) anthropogenically induced sinks (also referred to as CO2 fertilization effect). Note that land-use emissions are generally subject to relatively large uncertainties".
- number 69, page 38: "... carbon dioxide removal, such as through afforestation and reforestation, and bioenergy with carbon dioxide capture and storage, is considered essential ...".
- number 78, page 40: "Defined as renewables, fossil fuels with carbon dioxide capture and storage and nuclear power in accordance with the definition of “low-carbon energy” ...
Last but not least, nice to see references to the specific modelling tools in use for estimating emissions or baselines, such as The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimization Model System, the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model, Green Economy Modelling, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform, the PROSPECTS+ emissions scenario tool and the Ex-Ante Carbon-balance Tool.
Click at the image below for the full report, and here for the press release, including links to the following additional analysis, "The 2023 Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies Synthesis Report".
This last 41-pages report synthesizes information from the 68 latest available long-term low-emission development strategies, representing 75 Parties to the Paris Agreement, submitted to the secretariat as at 25 September 2023.
