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42nd Week CCM 2026. Times of action and impasses. Progress RGGI United States, VCM Portugal, ETS, CDR; IPCC Plenary suspended; other concerns in Italy, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland
Monday, 19 October 2026.
42nd Week Carbon Credit Markets in 2026. On the soundtrack of carbon markets.
Carbon credits are gaining momentum across various markets: while states in the Northeastern United States are strengthening RGGI rules to enhance environmental integrity, reduce emissions by 2037, and phase out the use of offsets, Portugal is expanding its voluntary carbon market with new forestry-related methodologies designed to increase credit generation and attract private investment in carbon sequestration solutions.
Other highlights include the IPCC facing a stalemate that could delay the AR7 report and compromise the scientific foundation for the 2028 Global Stocktake, while countries such as Italy, Germany, and Belgium are pushing for a loosening of European Union climate regulations in the name of industrial competitiveness. Meanwhile, Switzerland is showing signs of resistance to the climate agenda, with voters rejecting by a large majority a fund intended to finance the climate transition.
Briefs and opportunities include European Commission’s public consultation, accepting input until November 3, regarding the revision of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the Market Stability Reserve. Meanwhile, a new study by Abatable reveals that buyers of carbon credits are retiring credits more frequently and prioritizing projects with higher integrity. Additionally, an analysis by the WRI indicates that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) continues to gain global momentum, supported by new policies and incentives aimed at decarbonization.
Carbon Credits
Northeastern U.S. States Strengthen Carbon Market with New Emissions Rules
According to an analysis by the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), a global association dedicated to carbon market development, states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) are finalizing the implementation of revised program rules ahead of the new regulatory model taking effect on January 1, 2027, following the Third Program Review. These changes strengthen the regional emissions cap through 2037, introduce new market stability mechanisms, replace the Emissions Containment Reserve with a higher Reserve Price, and eliminate the use of offsets for compliance purposes, thereby enhancing the environmental integrity of the RGGI Model Rule system. The report notes that Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont, and New York have already implemented the new rules, while other states are in the process of regulatory alignment, and Virginia rejoined the initiative in July 2026. The next milestone is RGGI Auction 74 on December 2, 2026, which will include additional allowances to support the transition to the new regulatory regime. The model maintains a system based on CO₂ allowances, where each unit represents the right to emit one ton of carbon dioxide, solidifying RGGI’s position as one of the world's leading subnational carbon markets.
Portugal expands voluntary carbon market to attract private investment in forests
According to a statement published on October 6, 2026, by Portugal’s Ministry of the Environment and Energy, the government body responsible for the country's environmental and energy policies, the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) now incorporates three methodologies following the approval of new rules for Reforestation and Improved Forest Management, which join the existing methodology for New Afforestation. The measure aims to expand opportunities for developing carbon sequestration projects, increase the generation of carbon credits, and attract private investment in nature-based solutions, thereby contributing to carbon neutrality, territorial valorization, and the resilience of Portuguese forests. According to the ministry, the market already features two registered projects, a third undergoing initial validation, 977 carbon credits available for sale, 29 registered users, and 10 qualified verifiers. It is regarded as a tool to channel private funding into climate action and to strengthen the growth and credibility of the carbon market in Portugal.
Others Highlights
Deadlock at the IPCC threatens the AR7 timeline and the scientific basis for the 2028 Global Stocktake
On October 16, 2026, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN’s scientific body for the assessment of climate science, announced the suspension of its 65th Plenary Session in Addis Ababa. The decision was made by the IPCC Chair after the meeting exceeded its scheduled duration and following the departure of delegations from Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). As a result, discussions regarding the timeline for the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) and the organization’s budget remain unresolved.
On October 9, Reuters had already reported that an unprecedented impasse among IPCC members could jeopardize the publication of the next assessment report, potentially limiting the availability of an updated scientific foundation for COP33 and the second Global Stocktake (GST2) under the Paris Agreement.
At the heart of the dispute appears to be an attempt to postpone the release of reports from Working Groups II and III, which cover impacts, adaptation, loss and damage, and climate change mitigation, until 2029. Such a delay would prevent these reports from being fully utilized during the GST2, which is scheduled for 2028. According to these accounts, the majority position, supported by various governments, scientists, and civil society organizations, favors completing the reports by 2028. This stance has faced resistance from a small group of developing nations with high greenhouse gas emissions and strong ties to the production and consumption of fossil fuels, with India and Saudi Arabia mentioned in this context.
Delegations from countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, along with the more than 600 scientists involved in drafting the AR7, argue that this episode exposes the weaknesses of the IPCC’s consensus-based decision-making model, at a time of growing climate urgency.
A group of European countries seeks to mitigate the impact of climate regulations on competitiveness.
On October 6, the Italian government announced that the fourth meeting of an informal group of countries focused on European competitiveness addressed energy costs, the simplification of European Union regulations, and international trade. Discussions included proposals to reduce costs associated with the Emissions Trading System (ETS), limit the impact of CO₂ pricing on electricity, and postpone the implementation of the ETS2. A few days later, the pan-European news outlet Euronews reported that Germany, Italy, and Belgium had advocated for an “emergency brake” mechanism, a way to suspend new European legislation deemed overly burdensome for businesses. This initiative is part of an agenda aimed at strengthening industrial competitiveness, accelerating investments in decarbonization, and reducing regulatory burdens.
Earlier this year, Italy had already intensified its push to suspend the ETS, arguing that the system has a “perverse effect” on industrial competitiveness.
Meanwhile, from a more financial perspective, Switzerland, which is not a member of the European Union, has also shown strong resistance to climate transition efforts. According to a report by SWI swissinfo.ch, reasons cited by the 71% of voters who rejected the creation of a climate fund, which would have allocated up to 1% of the annual GDP to environmental initiatives, included competing priorities, a decline in interest, and the perception that the concept was too abstract. The outcome reflects concerns regarding additional costs, the direct impact on household budgets, and competition with other national priorities, such as social security and defense.
Briefs & Opportunities
The European Commission's public consultation on the revision of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), open until November 3, 2026, gathers proposals regarding aviation, maritime transport, and industrial installations, including new rules for monitoring and reporting emissions in the maritime sector and changes to the free allocation of emission allowances for sectors exposed to the risk of carbon leakage.
Carbon credit buyers are rapidly shifting their strategies: as of 2025, they are retiring credits more frequently (13 times per buyer, up from 5 in 2019) and increasingly seeking projects with higher integrity, while methodologies approved by the CCP have significantly expanded their market share. Discover what else the new report from Abatable reveals beyond these trends.
A recent study by the World Resources Institute (WRI) shows that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is gaining global momentum—even as the United States steps back—driven by new public policies, government incentives, and mechanisms to accelerate the climate transition. The full article outlines how countries and economic blocs are shaping the future of decarbonization and explains why this strategy could be pivotal in keeping certain industrial sectors at the forefront.
Events
October
🇦🇺 20 - 21, Australasian Emission Reduction Summit, Adelaide, Australia
November
🇹🇷 9 - 20, COP31. Antalya, Türkiye.
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