In a new paper published in the July 2023 issue of World Development, Ruben Lubowski (Columbia University), Pedro Piris-Cabezas (Environmental Defense Fund) and Gabriela Leslie (CREO Syndicate) estimate the potential of international carbon markets if REDD+ is included on a global scale.
"By helping achieve emissions targets more inexpensively than expected, emissions trading systems can lower political resistance to more ambitious targets, enabling deeper and faster cuts in emissions over time". That's the first phrase of the Abstract. And later on: "We also find that since protecting tropical forests offers so much low-cost mitigation potential, linking reduced deforestation to an international carbon market drives a majority of the potential ambition gains across the modeled scenarios."
Here some more quotes, per chapter
Full global markets
"Introducing REDD+ enables 55 GtCO2e or two-thirds out of 83 GtCO2e of total added reductions, holding constant the total cost of mitigation as in the case without international trading. Notably, this increase in global mitigation ambition is sufficient to put the world on a trajectory that keeps open options for limiting warming to the 1.5°C, based on modeled pathways from the European Commission"
Carbon prices
Conclusion
"We find that the global use of emissions trading, based on well-designed accounting rules and the banking (carry-forward) of emissions units over 2020–2035 could allow the world to nearly double climate ambition without increasing aggregate costs relative to countries’ acting purely independently to achieve their NDCs. Most of these potential gains come from the inclusion of REDD+, suggesting it is an immediate priority for international market development."
Click at the image below to access the study, starting with a 5 bullet points summary.
Study was supported by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and the MacArthur Foundation.
Recall here our article from last year's Boxing Day, December 26, "IMF chief says $75/ton carbon price needed by 2030" (US$25 for low-income countries, US$50 for middle-income and US$75 for high-income)
And also these recent posts:
- “U.S 🇺🇸 politician proposes planting a trillion trees and "move away from denial" of climate change”
